Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.261549 9.738700 11.358534 13.260656 15.426755 17.810212 20.624606
2025-02-09 5.984132 7.980215 10.396895 13.509411 17.380046 22.001290 27.898712
2025-02-16 4.420472 6.576428 9.421489 13.382883 18.677612 25.424129 34.569874
2025-02-23 3.295167 5.420397 8.451645 12.971658 19.398308 28.046022 40.365629
2025-03-02 2.469689 4.468671 7.534295 12.399955 19.709748 30.025737 45.362315
2025-03-09 1.977461 3.901235 7.049005 12.325263 20.635241 32.843427 51.648143
2025-03-16 1.574458 3.381112 6.528201 12.083177 21.225319 35.160047 57.324800
2025-03-23 1.398676 3.223828 6.571161 12.731761 23.231812 39.706634 66.574769
2025-03-30 1.183848 2.939447 6.336038 12.860033 24.378790 42.981317 74.077478
2025-04-06 0.996266 2.664484 6.066564 12.877383 25.315431 45.958891 81.274847
2025-04-13 0.836047 2.408563 5.786607 12.827069 26.107783 48.729066 88.281502
2025-04-20 0.786373 2.397347 5.995975 13.723562 28.651097 54.561799 100.584778
2025-04-27 0.710788 2.311228 6.047297 14.341245 30.788192 59.931567 112.590309
2025-05-04 0.637321 2.213505 6.060270 14.887781 32.851335 65.331727 125.005655
2025-05-11 0.537170 2.014286 5.808003 14.846712 33.780486 68.791960 134.308897
2025-05-18 0.434142 1.772860 5.408813 14.429741 33.919020 70.822481 141.224421
2025-05-25 0.341449 1.529141 4.952599 13.814354 33.581173 71.930453 146.539414
2025-06-01 0.286656 1.391523 4.743174 13.736107 34.338605 75.122138 155.758491
2025-06-08 0.234789 1.243343 4.473379 13.471865 34.665363 77.495563 163.586060
2025-06-15 0.219567 1.232026 4.592032 14.183409 37.178315 84.266289 179.910699
2025-06-22 0.190632 1.152542 4.492649 14.324141 38.423668 88.588802 191.809991
2025-06-29 0.162960 1.066220 4.354277 14.343207 39.389773 92.399773 202.907833
2025-07-06 0.137898 0.979795 4.196754 14.288085 40.174521 95.878959 213.520574